Segolene Royal

Could France have a Royal back at its helm next year for the first time in a century and a half? And a female Royal at that? Needless to say, I speak not of a reconstituted monarchy, but of the latest star to light the political firmament here. The woman in question is Segolene Royal. She is tall and attractive. She is the partner of Socialist leader Francois Hollande and the mother of their four children. She is a Socialist MP and the president of the Poitou-Charente region. She served briefly as minister of the environment in 1992, and later had junior portfolios for children and family affairs in the government of Lionel Jospin. She is also the person most of the French public say they would like to see representing the Socialists at the 2007 presidential election. One poll last week even suggested that she is now the most popular politician in France -- of all political persuasions. In other words she outranked not just rivals on the left like Jack Lang and Laurent Fabius but also the big hitters on the right like Dominique de Villepin and Nicolas Sarkozy. If say Sarkozy were to be the right's candidate in May next year, and the left agreed to put up Royal -- who is to say that she would not be the winner? After all the story of recent elections in France has been flip followed by flop. The old lot are always turfed out -- which means Buggin's turn could well go to the left next time. Personally I think Royal is the best-placed to challenge the right. People like her because she breaks the mould. She is not one of the "dinosaurs" of the party like Fabius or Lang. Because of that she is viewed with mistrust by many in the socialist party, but that in a way is a great asset. The public is utterly fed up with the same old faces. But whether she would have the weight to beat a Sarkozy or a Villepin is another matter. To have been environment minister for less than a year in 1992 is not exactly an impressive CV. And she has yet to put her name to a single substantive policy initiative. Supporters say that is all to come. She is launching a website and political club this month, and a book follows in March. But the problem is that in today's divided Socialist party, saying anything of significance -- say on Europe or the future of the French "model" -- risks reigniting the internal conflagration. For May 2007 I would put my money on a Sarkozy-Royal run-off, with Sarkozy winning hands down.