Alain Duhanmel must be eating his hat. The best-known of France's political journos wrote a book at the start of the year on the "presidentiables" -- i.e. those leaders who stand a realistic chance in the 2007 elections. He mentioned several leading Socialists, but deliberately omitted Segolene Royal -- who was at the time beginning to emerge as a possible candidate. Asked why he left her out, Duhamel said he didn't take her seriously: she had no programme and no "team" inside the party. Six months later this looks absurd. "Sego" is a million miles ahead of the other Socialist candidates -- all the old "elephants" like Fabius, Jospin, Lang and Strauss-Kahn. Poll after poll shows that she alone has a chance of beating Nicolas Sarkozy in the run-off. Socialist insiders find this very awkward. They mistrust Sego as a media creation, and fear she's running a personalised campaign that will make the party itself irrelevant. Their suspicions have been confirmed by her recent pronouncements -- attacking the 35 hour week for example, and backing boot camps for young hooligans. On the other hand if she represents the best opportunity for winning, then maybe it would be just plain stupid not to support her. Things are going to heat up over the summer, and then at the "rentree" campaigning will begin for the Socialist nomination. The 200,000 card-carrying members will be called on to vote on who they want to carry the Socialist banner. In normal times, the rank-and-file follow one or other of the party "elephants." Can they bear to swallow their ideological pride and vote for a woman who deep-down they despise as a lightweight? We shall see.