It is only right and proper that with ten days to go before round one of the presidential election, I should stick my neck on the line and make a prediction of the outcome. So here goes. I think Nicolas Sarkozy will win by a bigger margin than people suspect. I think he will qualify without difficulty in round one alongside Segolene Royal, and in round two he will wipe the floor with her. Okay, I know -- all I am doing is repeating the polls. But there are plenty of people out there saying that the polls are themselves wrong. Number one of these people is Jean-Marie le Pen, who with some justification complains that his score tends to be undervalued. I take all that into account -- and I "persist and sign" , as the French say. Many people loathe Sarkozy, I know. They tend to be Paris bo-bos (affluent left-wingers) and anyone linked to the public sector. But here are two thoughts that make me think he's a sure-fire winner. One, when it comes to the vote, many people who have doubts about him are going to say "Fair enough -- you earned it". After all Sarkozy has had to fight his way to the top, taking everything his enemies could throw at him (and the enemies were not all on the left) -- but he never screwed up. There's been no terrible revelation, no massive gaffe -- even in the riots (so often thrown in his face) it is worth remembering that there was not a single serious injury among the rioters. Second thing, I reckon that the same phenomenon that underestimated the Le Pen vote now favours Sarkozy. There is a reluctance among some people to admit to voting for him, because still the word "right-wing" is seen as a little bit dirty. This is all conjecture. If it comes true, remember you saw it here first. If it turns out to be a load of old cobblers, well you'll forget it -- won't you?