stick your neck out time again

May 4, 2007

Having so far been proved 100 percent right in my predictions for the French election, it is time to do it again and say Sunday's vote will be a resounding win for Nicolas Sarkozy. Fair enough, that is what the polls are all predicting as well, so maybe it's not very original. But I will go further: it will be a victory by a wider margin than the pollsters say (just like in round one). Why this feeling? First, the sense that there is a hidden Sarkozy vote just as there was a hidden Le Pen vote -- people reluctant to say they vote for him because they think it's more acceptable to be on the left. Second, the feeling one gets from travelling around the country that the Paris prism is intrinsically biased in favour of the socialist Segolene Royal. Thus, editorials in Le Monde and Liberation are quoted as if they have the slightest impact on the way the provinces vote. Believe me: they don't. And third -- and here I enter into a purely personal viewpoint -- the wretched nature of Madame Royal herself. I know that the pundits all said that Wednesday's debate was a draw, and that she even scored a lot of major hits on Sarkozy. That is not how I saw it. I saw it as a moment when the French could get a look at the characters of their presidential possibles and shape their choice accordingly. Under that light, it was a disaster for Royal. She came across -- for me -- as calculated, smug, aggressive. And her assault on Sarkozy over his alleged neglect of the handicapped was contrived and shameless. She will have won plaudits from her own side, but I reckon most people will have found her -- as I do -- quite appalling. Since then she has made things worse: indulging in a thoroughly irresponsible scare campaign and openly warning of trouble -- i.e. violence -- if Sarkozy is elected. This is a pathetic last straw, and will I hope be seen as such. The core left vote will of course stick by her, and that is no small percentage. But I suspect a tipping effect in these last couple of days. Result: 56 percent Sarkoxzy -- 44 Royal. Remember, normal pundit rules apply: if it comes true, you heard it here first. If it doesn't, well ..you'll forget about it won't you.

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Comments

Bonjour,

Après avoir lu votre article sur "Black tourism in paris", et étant animateur d'une association intéressée par les passages de WEB dui Bois en France, j'aurain souhaité avoir quelques précisions sur les agences spécialisées ou les publications sur ce tourisme noir américain. En outre ces touristes ont - ils un hôtel préférentiel à Paris?

Merci d'avance pour votre réponse.

lazare KI-ZERBO

06 76 33 34 01

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Posted by: Lazare at July 27, 2007 1:21 PM


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